Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked participants from Wisconsin for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 5 and October 7. The sample size was 993 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.