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California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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