California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 8.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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