California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 46.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can incorporate large biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 8.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.