The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.2% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.