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Arkansas: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.2% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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