The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 57.2%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.