Alabama: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 45.6% for Clinton, and 54.4% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 54.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 0.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 54.4 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 8.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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