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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump. In comparison, on October 11 Trump was still predicted to garner 47.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.0%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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