Results of a new poll carried out by WBUR/MassINC were circulated on October 10. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 with 502 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.