Hampton University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Virginia is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Hampton University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 28 to October 2 among 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 57.5% for Clinton and 42.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.6%. Compared to her numbers in the Hampton University poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia. This means that the PollyVote is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.