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Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.6% for Clinton, and 50.4% for Trump in Virginia.

Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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