Results of a new poll carried out by University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware were announced. The poll asked participants from Delaware for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll results
Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 16 to September 28, among a random sample of 762 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Delaware polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.0%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Delaware. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.