Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 37.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 23. A total of 1087 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri has Trump at 56.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.