Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 9 to October 11, among a random sample of 406 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.1% for Clinton and 52.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri has Trump at 55.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.