Harper (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Kentucky were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Harper (R) poll results
According to the results, 36.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 31 to August 1, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 42.4% for Clinton and 57.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.