Texas Lyceum released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Texas were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Texas Lyceum poll results
Of those who answered the question, 36.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 1 to September 11 with 502 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump. In the most recent Texas Lyceum poll on September 21 Clinton received 48.7%, while Trump received only 51.3%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Texas polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 54.0%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Texas Lyceum poll.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Texas. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.0 points above his polling numbers.