Results of a new poll carried out by Suffolk University were published. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Suffolk University poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29. A total of 500 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 50.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. Relative to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.