Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 22 and September 29. The sample size was 638 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New Jersey polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 56.3%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Richard Stockton CollegeRichard Stockton College poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.