Results of a new poll carried out by Remington Research (R) were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Remington Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 39.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 26 to September 27. A total of 1279 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump. To compare: 44.7% was obtained by Clinton in the Remington Research (R) poll on September 2, for Trump this result was only 55.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 56.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Missouri. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.