Results of a new poll conducted by PPIC were announced on October 10. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
The results show that 47.0% of participants indicated that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 9 to September 18 with 1055 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 60.3% for Clinton and 39.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPIC poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that the PollyVote is 0.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.