Results of a new poll carried out by SusquehannaSusquehanna were released. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
SusquehannaSusquehanna poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 9. A total of 764 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the SusquehannaSusquehanna poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.