On October 10, Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 50.0% of participants plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 30 and October 3. The sample size was 402 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 55.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.