Results of a new poll carried out by Hoffman Research (R)Hoffman Research (R) were circulated. The poll asked participants from Oregon for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Hoffman Research (R)Hoffman Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 29 to October 1, among a random sample of 605 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Oregon. Relative to her numbers in the Hoffman Research (R)Hoffman Research (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon.