Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 4 and October 4. The sample size was 1248 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-2.8 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Oregon sees Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.