The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.