North Dakota: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 37.0% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, while Trump will win 63.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.