High PointHigh Point published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
High PointHigh Point poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 6. A total of 479 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the High PointHigh Point poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.