Bloomberg released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 29 to October 2 with 805 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they may include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Bloomberg poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.