On October 10, WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 3 with 656 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. Relative to her numbers in the WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.