WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 3. A total of 656 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the WRAL-TV/SurveyUSAWRAL/SUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.