High PointHigh Point published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
High PointHigh Point poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 1 and October 6. The sample size was 479 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the High PointHigh Point poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.