Results of a new poll carried out by News Journal/PublicMind were distributed on October 10. The poll asked respondents from Delaware for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
News Journal/PublicMind poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 20 to July 24. A total of 715 registered voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 56.8% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Delaware has Clinton at 60.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the News Journal/PublicMind poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Delaware. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.