Results of a new poll conducted by Siena were announced. The poll asked respondents from New York for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
The results show that 51.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 11 to September 15 among 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-5.0 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump. On March 3 Clinton received only 62.6% in the Siena poll and Trump received 37.4%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.