Results of a new poll carried out by NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist were distributed on October 10. The poll asked respondents from New York for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll results
Of those who replied, 52.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 21 to September 23, among a random sample of 676 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 62.7% for Clinton and 37.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 62.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.