NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of respondents indicated that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 21 and September 23. The sample size was 676 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 62.7% for Clinton and 37.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.0%. Relative to her numbers in the NBC 4 NY/WSJ/MaristNBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.