UMass Amherst/WBZUMass Amherst/WBZ published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
UMass Amherst/WBZUMass Amherst/WBZ poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 15 to September 20 with 700 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 63.5%. This value is 5.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the UMass Amherst/WBZUMass Amherst/WBZ poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.