Siena published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 11 to September 15, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.