On October 10, Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 6 to September 10, among a random sample of 735 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 62.8% for Clinton and 37.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Jersey sees Clinton at 56.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.