New Remington Research (R) poll in Missouri: Clinton trails by a healthy margin
By On October 10, Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 26 to September 27, among a random sample of 1279 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Missouri polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 56.3%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that the PollyVote is 1.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.
