Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 among 535 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.2 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.