New Monmouth poll in Georgia: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
By Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of respondents are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 15 and September 18. The sample size was 401 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump can currently count on 52.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Georgia. In comparison to his numbers in the Monmouth poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.
