On October 10, Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 27 and September 29. The sample size was 501 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of New Mexico polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.