Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 among 501 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.