Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have often achieved similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 among 800 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.