Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 6 and September 10. The sample size was 735 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 62.8% for Clinton and 37.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. This value is 6.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rutgers-EagletonRutgers-Eagleton poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, the PollyVote is 5.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.