Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees indicated that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.