On October 10, Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often gained similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5 with 500 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. Relative to her numbers in the Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.