Results of a new poll administered by WBUR/MassINC were circulated. The poll asked respondents from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 29 among 502 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.