Results of a new poll carried out by FOX News were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Nevada for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
In Nevada, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 18 and September 20. The sample size was 704 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 49.3%. Relative to his numbers in the FOX News poll Trump's poll average is 3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.3 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.