Results of a new poll administered by FOX News were published on October 10. The poll asked respondents from Nevada for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
In Nevada, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20, among a random sample of 704 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 49.3%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX News poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.