Results of a new poll administered by MPRC (D)MPRC (D) were spread on October 10. The poll asked interviewees from Maine for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 9 with 892 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Maine polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. Compared to her numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.